YR4 has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Astronomers are tracking it to refine estimates of its size and orbit to see how much of a risk the space rock poses.
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YR4 has a roughly 2 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2032, and “is large enough to cause localized damage,” NASA says.
In an update issued on February 7, NASA said the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth had gone from around 1.2 percent (one-in-83) to 2.3 percent (one-in-43).