India and China are aware of the “very high political, economic and military cost of frozen relations,” he says. “China felt it had pushed India too close to the U.S. while India realized that it was losing its vaunted strategic autonomy by getting too close to Washington and turning Beijing into an adversary.”

JONATHAN A. CZIN is the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a Fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He is a former member of the Senior Analytic Service at the CIA and was Director for China at the National Security Council from 2021 until 2023.

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